:Product: 0522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
22/1431Z from Region 3017 (N14W14). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May,
25 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 22/1807Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/0758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0120Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 952 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25
May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).

III.  Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 165
Predicted   23 May-25 May 165/163/162
90 Day Mean        22 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  005/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15