:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0922Z from Region 3017 (S17W86). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (25 May, 26 May) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 442 km/s at 24/0115Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 968 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (26 May, 27 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (25 May, 26
May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    35/25/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 147
Predicted   25 May-27 May 146/144/140
90 Day Mean        24 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  006/005-010/012-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/40/40