:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/1824Z from Region 3016 (S18W47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (26 May) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on day two (27 May) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 24/2118Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
25/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/0708Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 636 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 May). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    30/20/15
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 137
Predicted   26 May-28 May 136/132/130
90 Day Mean        25 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  010/012-011/014-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30