:Product: 0526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
26/0449Z from Region 3017 (N12W71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (27 May) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (28 May) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three
(29 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 26/0129Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/1013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 775 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28
May, 29 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    30/20/05
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 123
Predicted   27 May-29 May 120/115/110
90 Day Mean        26 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  012/015-015/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           10/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/50/30