:Product: 0527RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1127Z from Region 3021 (N13E02). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (28 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (29 May, 30 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 27/2053Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 27/1220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 27/1207Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 507 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (29 May) and unsettled levels on day three (30
May).

III.  Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 114
Predicted   28 May-30 May 112/108/110
90 Day Mean        27 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  014/018-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/10