:Product: 0528RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1904Z from Region 3021 (N13W10). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 28/0442Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 27/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/2143Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May), unsettled levels on
day two (30 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 May 102
Predicted   29 May-31 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        28 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May  021/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  012/015-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/25