:Product: 0529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May,
31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 29/1931Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/0937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
29/0805Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 888 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 098
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        29 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10