:Product: 0531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 30/2235Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 30/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/0315Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5303 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 098
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 098/098/098
90 Day Mean        31 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  009/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20