:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 377 km/s at 02/2158Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9724 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 101
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 100/100/098
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  006/005-010/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/30
Minor Storm           01/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/45/40