:Product: 0610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/1054Z from Region 3030 (N20E60). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jun,
12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 322 km/s at 10/1222Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
10/0854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/0958Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 111
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 005/005/005
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10