:Product: 0611RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/1410Z from Region 3030 (N20E52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jun,
13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 11/1357Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0519Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 112
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 115/120/120
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10