:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
13/0407Z from Region 3032 (N21E33). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 13/0720Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 13/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 13/0128Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun), active to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (16 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 132
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 132/132/132
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  009/012-027/040-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor Storm           10/30/20
Major-severe storm    01/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/65/50