:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/0440Z from Region 3036 (S12W69). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 15/0556Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 15/0443Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 15/0443Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jun,
17 Jun, 18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 140
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 140/138/138
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  011/014-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/25