:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0353Z from Region 3031 (S25W30). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 16/2058Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/1203Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 460 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jun, 18
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 147
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 146/146/144
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  008/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20