:Product: 0622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
22/1623Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun,
25 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 21/2105Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/1149Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 129
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  007/008-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/10/35