:Product: 0623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
23/1120Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 23/1858Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1920Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0257Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1176 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 121
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 120/115/110
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  008/008-010/012-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/50