:Product: 0624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/2210Z from Region 3038 (N16W47). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 24/1508Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/2049Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 115
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  010/012-015/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/30