:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1402Z from Region 3040 (S12E16). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 24/2342Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 25/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
25/1821Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2035 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (27 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    10/10/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 108
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 105/105/095
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  017/018-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/35
Minor Storm           25/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/40/50