:Product: 0626RSGA.txt :Issued: 2022 Jun 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/0812Z from Region 3040 (S14E02). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 760 km/s at 26/1230Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 26/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 25/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1149 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun). III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun Class M 10/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jun 102 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 013/015-009/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/50/30