:Product: 0627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 26/2122Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 26/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/2222Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3636 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 098
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  009/012-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/10