:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jul,
04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 02/0622Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 02/1004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 02/0403Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2304 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Jul, 05
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 100
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 102/108/110
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  008/008-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/25
Minor Storm           10/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    40/10/40