:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
04/1333Z from Region 3050 (N18E30). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jul,
06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 04/1714Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 04/0414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 04/0305Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 104
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 106/106/110
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  010/010-017/025-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor Storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/65/50