:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1057Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul,
07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 04/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/2116Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (08
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 115
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 115/120/120
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  018/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  017/025-012/014-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/40