:Product: 0708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1908Z from Region 3053 (N15E35). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/0928Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 08/0120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 07/2151Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 130
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 132/132/130
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/15