:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/2343Z from Region 3056 (S15E65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 11/1033Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 11/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
11/1744Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (12 Jul, 14 Jul)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Jul). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul,
13 Jul, 14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 161
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  013/015-020/028-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           20/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/70/50