:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/2148Z from Region 3058 (N15E71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 589 km/s at 14/2356Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/1429Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 330 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jul,
17 Jul, 18 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 171
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35