:Product: 0716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1539Z from Region 3055 (S16W52). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 16/0654Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0552Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3341 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul,
18 Jul, 19 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    45/45/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 176
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35