:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/1227Z from Region 3058 (N13E26). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 687 km/s at 16/2115Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
17/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/1831Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5273 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul)
and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19
Jul, 20 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    45/45/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 166
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 160/160/150
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  008/008-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/35/50