:Product: 0719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/2354Z from Region 3058 (N14E16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul,
22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 19/1204Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 19/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 19/0727Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 305 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (21 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 144
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  013/018-017/022-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/70/70