:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/0111Z from Region 3060 (N14W20). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 21/1658Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 21/1631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 21/1527Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1333 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Jul), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (24 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 122
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 120/118/118
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  017/020-029/040-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           35/35/10
Major-severe storm    10/25/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    75/79/40