:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
21/2346Z from Region 3056 (S14W87). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jul,
24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 22/1429Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/2105Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 851 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 114
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 112/108/108
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  029/040-011/014-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           35/10/05
Major-severe storm    25/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    79/40/25