:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1805Z from Region 3057 (N17W91). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 702 km/s at 23/0236Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 23/0231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 23/0240Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 702 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 111
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 108/108/106
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    35/25/20