:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/2241Z from Region 3057 (N17W91). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 24/0534Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 23/2152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2329Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 926 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 107
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 108/106/102
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/20