:Product: 0725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0833Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 25/0217Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0251Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1247 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 102
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 102/100/100
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20