:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/0433Z from Region 3068 (S15E45). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul,
31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 394 km/s at 29/0238Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
29/1453Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 759 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 093
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 093/093/090
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  007/008-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/10
Minor Storm           05/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/50/15