:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 31/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 31/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
31/1349Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1374 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet levels on
day two (02 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 094
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 092/090/092
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  009/010-005/005-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/35
Minor Storm           15/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    50/15/60