:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
02/1533Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 02/1926Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 02/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1012Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 390 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 098
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 100/098/098
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/20