:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
03/1708Z from Region 3068 (S15W24). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 03/0201Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 02/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/2146Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 348 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 100
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15