:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
05/0607Z from Region 3073 (S35W45). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 04/2220Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/0033Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 199 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 114
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 114/114/112
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  008/008-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/35