:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug,
08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 05/2226Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
06/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/2109Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08
Aug, 09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 116
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 118/116/112
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  011/012-010/012-013/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/35/50