:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug,
09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 07/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 07/1442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
07/1401Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 116
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 116/112/112
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  014/018-013/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/30