:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2306Z from Region 3068 (S15W83). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Aug,
10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 08/0217Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 07/2209Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1641 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 113
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 112/112/112
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  020/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  014/016-010/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/40