:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1020Z from Region 3077 (S18W48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug,
14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 12/0531Z. Total IMF reached 28
nT at 12/0337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0700Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3335 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 120
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 120/118/118
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05