:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
13/0731Z from Region 3079 (S11W25). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug,
16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 12/2202Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1606Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6242 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 124
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 122/122/121
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/05/05