:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
14/1400Z from Region 3079 (S11W39). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug,
17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 14/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0036Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3058 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (17 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 126
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 124/124/122
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  005/005-006/005-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/50