:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
17/1345Z from Region 3078 (S20W34). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 17/1841Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 17/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 17/1850Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6038 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (20 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 123
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  020/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  039/056-022/030-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/40
Minor Storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    50/25/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    90/75/55