:Product: 0818RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/1055Z from Region 3078 (S24W47). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 18/1254Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 18/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 18/0522Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 509 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (19 Aug), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (21 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Aug 117
Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        18 Aug 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  022/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  021/030-018/025-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/20
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    25/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    75/55/25