:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0444Z from Region 3078 (S24W62). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 19/2055Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 19/1716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 19/1923Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2095 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 105
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  018/025-008/025-008/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/20