:Product: 0821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0459Z from Region 3081 (N11W66). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Aug,
23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 21/0355Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/0054Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3322 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 097
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 098/096/096
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  016/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  019/025-014/015-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/30/20