:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 22 2245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2022 COR

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/1409Z from Region 3085 (N30E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 22/0003Z. Total IMF reached 7 
nT at 21/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/0032Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3820 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 097
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/20